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IEA says government should not bank on Low Oil Prices

 2015-10-26 08:09:22.0

SINGAPORE: Countries should not bank on oil prices remaining low when formulating their energy policies, as supplies could tighten from mid-2016 due to a drop in investment and falling US output.�petrol

"It will be a great mistake to index our attention to oil security to the oil price trajectory in the short term," Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said at the Singapore International Energy Week.�Global oil prices have more than halved since June 2014 on rising US shale oil output and as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to defend market share rather than cut production.

If prices continued at current levels, oil investment was likely to decline again in 2016, mainly in high-cost regions, after sliding this year by more than a fifth, said Birol, who took over the top post at the Paris-based IEA in September.�Birol said geopolitical risks in the Middle East that could disrupt supplies remained, although a lifting of sanctions on Iran could boost production by 400,000-600,000 barrels per day (bpd) within a year.

US production of light tight oil production had peaked and was expected to decline by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016, he added, tightening supplies further.�Most of the investment in renewables would be in emerging economies led by China and India, a shift away from OECD countries, Birol said.

He hoped ministers from both countries would be at a November 17-18 ministerial meeting in Paris as special guests "which will strengthen the ties we have with those countries."�On liquefied natural gas (LNG), Birol said supplies would be ample as the market will expand to 500 billion cubic metres around 2020 with new production in Australia and the United States.

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